Changes after lockdown

As governments are starting to lift lockdown, or are at least asking about it here in the UK, lots of people are wondering what this new reality will look like.

I don’t think anyone is expecting everyone to go back to the normal commute and book a mini-break in Venice as soon as lockdown is lifted. Yes, there may be some businesses that don’t open again. Almost all companies will have taken this opportunity to re-evaluate staffing levels and possibly made some employees redundant to “streamline” going forward. Some may have made a business decision to close the office and work from home permanently, or move to online sales, to reduce overheads and give them a competitive advantage. I think most of us would expect to see a quieter city centre and more closed shops when we emerge from our isolation.

Looking beyond the local impact what could happen on a global scale? If you have been reading past the coronavirus headlines, you will see that oil prices dropped into negative figures for the first time ever. I was left scratching my head – people were willing to pay $37 to take a barrel of oil off their hands?

It is down to storage capacity – it is full. So even at rock bottom prices no one can squeeze any more in their storage until consumption starts to pick up. There were apparently more fully laden oil tankers at sea than there has ever been before and with few customers they had nowhere to dock. Most countries have agreed to production cuts, but at those prices facilities will be closing due to bankruptcies if they haven’t been mothballed. Production won’t ramp back up until the price increases to a level that is profitable.

If that doesn’t ring the financial meltdown alarm bells, then Germany announcing a recession that will take 8 years to come out of should. Firstly because all countries are cautious about announcing the full extent of their financial problems and secondly Germany was not one of the most Covid-19 infected countries in Europe, with only 87 deaths per million people compared to over 400 for Italy and UK ( taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ on 7/5/20).

Then you have to look at what the US are doing – I know it’s a mixture of horrifying and farcical watching the words fall out of President Trump’s mouth, but as the dominant global player it’s important.

War Games. The last few weeks there has been more antagonism with Iran in the Gulf, they have encroached into China’s territory in the South China Sea, and they are carrying out naval drills with the UK on Russia’s doorstep. Plus they have continued meddling in Venezuela which has the biggest oil reserves in the World. These provocations aren't really new, but interesting to see there has been no pause during the pandemic.

Historically wars have been seen to follow recession. Given that just the announcement of “tensions” from the US normally results in a boost to oil prices, a new war would have the added bonus of boosting GDP and providing plentiful contracts for re-building to US contractors, after the unfortunate country has been plundered.

There’s never much public support for war without a trigger. There needs to be a catalyst for governments to “react” to. Remember how slowly and ineffectually the UK government responded to the threat of Covid-19? Or how it took 3 days to comment after the Grenfell Tower disaster? This is normal, government is a ponderous beast to manoeuvre. When the response is fast and they immediately know conclusively who is to blame before the dust has settled and an investigation has even begun, then strap yourself in to be taken for a ride. This is where observing reports from different media outlets helps. When the media have been fed a story from government, they all describe it with the same wording and there is little variation from the national channels.

I’m just saying that overseas development and military hardware are likely growth industries, and that it’s not a good time for your potentially unemployed kids to sign up for military service.

High unemployment doesn’t necessarily mean there are no jobs around. Even in lockdown there is an increase in demand for delivery drivers and businesses supplying bikes and table tennis tables have been booming. Amazon is thriving, and as much as I avoid them and try to buy local, I can’t see this declining anytime soon. Unless we take action like France – to fine them for every non-emergency supply delivery that they make until they have ensured their workers are being protected from Covid-19. What we really need is a fairer tax system that taxes all turnover made in the UK, rather than a complicated tax on “profits” with lots of official loopholes, so that Amazon pay the same percentage of tax as all the small businesses they are wiping out ( I touched on this in my last very old post).

In the UK we may also see the trend of declining manufacturing industries reverse as we start to manufacture more essential goods at home. This is because countries will always protect supplies for their own citizens first. Plus transport of cargo has become more complicated, with borders more protected.

Flexible working and 4 day weeks may be more in demand, as people reassess their priorities after lockdown. If you can survive on 80% of your wages when you have time for cooking from scratch and no commute costs, then why not carry on with a more relaxed way of living? Part time working also provides more flexibility for businesses to have 20% of their labour hours in reserve if work starts slowly, so they are prepared if it ramps up again. This way they are retaining more of their trained staff with a broader expertise base, rather than opting for layoffs and then a recruitment drive once things pick up.

If the trend for homeworking continues then we could see the demand for properties in London decrease with more people choosing to live further afield. Whilst new office developments may slow, there could be bargains around for companies who can re-purpose them for higher value domestic units. Renting out hot-desking and meeting facilities could be a new growth area, to cater for companies with no main office space. I can imagine this gap being filled by Universities who may find online courses have become more popular for overseas students.

Once news outlets run out of Covid-19 drama, they will return to the normal fear-mongering about increases in crime due to the unemployed masses, so security products will be as popular as ever. I would like to hope that the new community spirit lasts and there are increases in the voluntary sector. The vacancies in the NHS may even get filled, as NHS workers are now getting the respect they deserve and there will be plenty of pressure from the public for more investment and fair pay rises. We can probably expect lots more from Extinction Rebellion too, as this pandemic has proved that the way to get change is to force a reaction.

I would love to hear about your experiences. What are your thoughts for the changes we are likely to see over the coming year?

The Obelisk

Who knew that Loughborough had an Obelisk? Loughborough isn't London by a long shot, it is a small town in the Midlands and yet poking above the treeline on the outskirts of town there is an 80ft Obelisk.

When I first saw it I thought maybe it was a chimney from an old factory or brick works, but given its location it made no sense.

 

 

It was built in 1730 for Ambrose Phillips who owned the Garendon Estate. He had been inspired by a trip to Italy. You can find out more history here. Garendon Hall was in a poor state after the war and was demolished, and the rubble used in the building of the M1 motorway. The Garendon estate is slowly disappearing as chunks have been sold off to developers over the years. My home is built on former Garendon estate land and we are fighting to stop the remaining land being developed.

How many 285 year old Obelisks involve traipsing through a muddy woods to see them? It looked rather lonely and neglected, and has had some ugly repair work. But the four spheres that hold the column up still look amazing. It was hard to get a good photo to show it on my mobile, but the whole top column rests solely on these stone spheres, giving the illusion that it could roll off, yet it is clearly incredibly stable.

What is reassuring is how well it has been built, considering it was before the industrial revolution and well before we had discovered oil. There is lots of amazing architecture still standing from this time, but I can't imagine the brickwork on my house surviving more than 100 years!

It is easy to forget how brief the current era of cheap oil has been. Where will the downward slope of the oil peak take us? Maybe it will re-ignite an interest in sailing ships, canals, windmills and great architecture again. Or maybe something completely different. But I think it highly unlikely that it will take us back to a medieval Britain, although many (my kids included) seem to imagine that this is what life without the internet means. Before oil there were books, music and art and after the oil is gone there will be too.

Waking up to shortages

There have been two articles recently that have demonstrated that more and more people are becoming aware of the looming energy crisis. The first was in the Chartered Institute of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE) Journal called 'When The Lights Go Out' by Bill Wright (May 2014, page 34). It focuses on the national issue in the UK of a shortage of electricity generation. It is clear that since privatisation in 1990 there has been an under-investment in new power generation. Now we are in a situation where power stations are reaching the end of their useful lives or will not meet tighter EU pollution regulations so have been shutdown, without new power stations coming online to replace them.

Ofgem (the gas and electricity regulatory body in the UK) have been warning of this for some time and I have written about it previously here. Writing for a commercial market, Bill explains the impact of even a short period of power cuts and encourages engineers to be prepared by having backup diesel generators and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS). Articles like this help to plant seeds in peoples minds and as it is aimed specifically at engineers who are responsible for implementing these backup measures, it will hopefully lead to better preparedness. It would take a major power cut or severe warnings from government to result in full-scale preparedness, but it is still a sign that concern is building.

It is the peak demand times when we are at the greatest risk of power cuts, other than from storm damage or severe weather. On a very cold winters evening, around 4 to 5pm, when many people are getting home from work and switching on heating, ovens, kettles etc., is the peak demand in the UK. In warmer parts of the world the peak demand comes in extreme hot weather, from air-conditioning use, but air-conditioning is uncommon in homes in the UK.

The UK's electricity network has been so robust, that power cuts are extremely rare. The last blackout I experienced was in 1987 from the Great Storm, and the blackouts since then have been mainly localised from extreme weather events. The next major power cut may come as a shock to many. Very few people have a back-up system or are off-grid. If you have solar PV panels that are linked in to the electricity grid they will be off in a powercut too, so would not provide a safety net.

The main thing that individuals can do to be prepared is to monitor and reduce their energy consumption at all times, but especially during the peak times. It is also prudent to have working torches with spare batteries or candles and matches on hand. I like head torches, because they leave your hands free and I also use mine instead of a bedside light. I have modelled one for you below, and they do look rather silly, but are so practical for jobs, such as changing light bulbs, that they are a worthy investment. You can give them as gifts to friends and family too.

If your heating is from a gas-fired boiler system, the controls will be electric, so it may be worthwhile ensuring you have some back up heating that doesn't need an electric ignition to start it. This is harder to do unless you have a wood stove, but having a gas hob and hot water bottles you can fill is a start. If you have a cordless telephone these won't work without electricity, so have a traditional landline phone with a cord just in case. You can pick these up cheaply from carboot sales or charity shops. Keeping some spare cash, including coins could be useful too as cash machines and credit cards won't be working in a powercut. Some rural areas may also lose water supply in a powercut, so storing bottles of drinking water may also be necessary.

When electricity is tight, it will force a reduction in consumption. In peak demand periods energy companies buy more electricity from Europe at a premium, so increasing prices. Power cuts will add pressure for further investment in electricity generation, so again increasing prices. Whichever way you cut it, prices will go up, making renewable energy systems more attractive and encouraging businesses and homeowners to seriously reduce their energy consumption. High energy prices have a significant effect on reducing consumption.

The other article was on the BBC News website entitled UK 'Needs More Home-grown Energy', based on a report by the Global Sustainability Institute.

"In just over five years Britain will have run out of oil, coal and gas, researchers have warned."

This again isn't anything new, but who else remembers being told that there was enough gas to last until 2030 and 200 years worth of coal at current consumption? Well countless UK mines have been closed, leaving no option but to rely on imports. UK oil production peaked in 1999 and UK gas production peaked soon afterwards in 2001. They now contribute an ever decreasing percentage of our annual consumption, with UK produced gas providing less than 50% of our total gas consumption for 2013. Rising imports may well have contributed to the increasing prices we have seen.

The report also goes on to claim that Russia has 50 years of oil, more than 100 years of gas and 500 years of coal left based on current consumption levels. As with most fossil fuel predictions you have to be aware that they are based upon current levels of consumption. If countries like the UK are increasingly running out of gas and oil, and are being left with little alternative than to turn to Russia to supply them, then the Russian exports may well increase. If you take into account that this week has also seen Russia sign a deal to supply gas to China for the next 10 years, you can see that the level of consumption is not static. If production increases then the fossil fuels will be used up far more quickly.

China have been exploring the possibilities of fracking. I'm not sure that they would have signed this new deal with Russia if there was any real prospect of fracking meeting their energy requirements. The US have been fracking for a while, but they are still gas importers according to Gail Tverberg in her post The Absurdity of US Natural Gas Exports. The UK government thinks fracking will fill our gap for natural gas, but I think they are deluded. At best it may delay the very real prospect of running out of UK-drilled gas, but at a very high price financially and environmentally.

Russia has some of the remotest landscapes, making drilling for gas or oil, and transporting it long distances, relatively expensive. This could be why they have more fossil fuels remaining than other countries, as when prices were low it was not cost effective to produce. There are clear signs that the highly militarised countries, that are addicted to fossil fuels, are preparing for a power struggle to ensure they have control over the remaining fossil fuel resources.

It would be really good to not be so dependent on fossil fuels right now. Making simple lifestyle changes now, before we are forced by circumstances to make lifestyle changes under pressure, is a good idea. John Michael Greer a leading Peak Oil writer and blogger has used the phrase "Collapse now and avoid the rush" to describe this idea, and he gives a good justification for it. I prefer to think of it as Downshifting. The point is that it is harder to prepare and make changes when everyone is in the same boat and trying to do the same. It is far better to put plans into action now.

"To give yourself a new life, you've gotta give the other one away." (words of a Sara Bareilles song, December) That is what Barry (who's ecohome I discussed in the last post) has done. He has chosen to turn his back on the pursuit of money and some of life's luxuries, like running water and a car, and created a new life where he can manage fairly well without them. What part of our business-as-usual lifestyles would you be prepared to give away?

Book Review: Surviving the Apocalypse in the Suburbs

I have just finished reading a book, as I have strained my knee, so I'm supposed to be 'resting'. Remarkably I have been sickness free all winter, so I have had little opportunity for reading and this book has been on the go for at least 6 months. It is called 'Surviving the Apocalypse in the Suburbs' by Wendy Brown. and I feel it is well worth a quick review.

"Let's pretend that we know that in 21 days life as we know it will come to an end. It does not mean that life will cease to exist, and it does not mean that humans will be obliterated from the Earth. What it means is that all the things we have come to expect, all of the luxuries we enjoy, all the accoutrements of modern life that are part of our day-to-day existence will be harder to get or just no longer available."

To me this is a really useful exercise, because we don't know what the future holds. Major events often happen too quickly for us to take stock and prepare. Thinking and preparing now can stand us in good stead for all kinds of eventualities.

I know it seems unlikely that anything drastic will happen here in Britain, but just think back to some of the events that our grandparents lived through. World War II and rationing, the North Sea Flood of 1953, the Big Freeze of 1963, the 3 Day Week of 1974, the Winter of Discontent in 1978/79, and the Fuel protests in 2000, to name a few. Technology may have advanced, but if anything that makes us even more exposed and vulnerable to loss of power or shortages. For instance do you know the phone numbers for your family, friends or doctor if you can't charge your mobile?

In her book, Wendy takes a day at a time and looks at the priorities that you may need to think about in order to be better prepared for eventualities. Starting with Day 1 looking at Shelter, she works through subsequent 'days' discussing water, food, cooking and so on, all the way to Day 21, which is about transportation. Some of it is common sense, but it is still good to hear again, because it makes you wonder why you haven't done anything to improve that aspect or be better prepared. For instance I know that in a power cut my boiler doesn't work because the controls rely on electricity, so what could I do about it? Wendy offers lots of solutions from the perspective that shortages are likely to be a long term problem for us in the future.

Wendy is clearly very knowledgeable about many aspects of what we call 'self-sufficiency'. I have certainly learnt more from her book about keeping animals, alternative healthcare and how to make my own vinegar. The only are where I disagree with her ideas is about wind turbines though, which I feel she dismisses rather too easily, based on them needing high-tech equipment to manufacture and maintain them. Wendy seems to have missed the potential for small scale wind turbines to provide useful mechanical energy or electricity. Many parts of the UK are still scattered with old windmills, that were used for milling wheat into flour, and have been recorded at least as far back as 1250. This is surely testament that we can harness the wind without the need for fossil fuels and modern day technology. The first wind turbine that was installed 30 years ago at The Centre for Alternative Technology in Wales was made with wood and canvas sails. In strong winds someone had to climb up and furl the sails to prevent damage, but it was still a viable low tech solution.

Wendy also sees solar PV as lasting only 10 years, but with no moving parts they are expected to last at least 30 years. They probably aren't much of an option in Maine where Wendy lives, as summers are short, but in the UK and Europe prices have been dropping with government subsidies and these could potentially provide a partial alternative source of electricity for the next 30 years.

On the whole 'Surviving the Apocalypse in the Suburbs' is a very easy to read book, with lots of good tips. It isn't very apocalyptic, so no zombie hordes or nuclear meltdowns, which suits me fine. There is the tiniest mention of guns in the chapter on security, but Wendy also points out that having a loud dog is the best security measure. I have yet to find a British 'preparedness' book, but I think that having read a few other American ones, Wendy's book is the best substitute. It is a calm and sensible evaluation of everything you may need to consider. Whether you decide to read the book or not, it is well worth thinking what you would do if you knew you only had 21 days to prepare.

Distances

Having recently evaluated my annual mileage, I have been thinking a lot about distances. Yes I am talking about how far it is from one point to another, such as the distance from your home to work, or the distance the apples have travelled to end up in your fruit bowl.

When I buy apples I can stand there for several minutes peering at labels and evaluating the distances. Sometimes there will be coxes apples from the UK, but this is much less likely out of season. Then I will be sifting through the apples mainly from China, USA and New Zealand to try and find some that are from somewhere more local, like France or Holland.

The UK is fairly densely populated, certainly compared to the rest of Europe, so it may be little wonder that we are not currently self-sufficient in food. However there has always been trade with our European neighbours, notably France, Holland and Spain for food. The distance across the English Channel to France is just 21 miles, and from London to Paris is 213 miles as the crow flies (or 282 miles by road and ferry/tunnel). This is about the same distance as it is from New York to Washington DC, yet they are within the same country. Does this distance still count as local for us, whether it is in another state or a neighbouring country?

New York to Los Angeles is 2,448 miles direct (or 2,790 miles driving), which is more than 10 times the distance from London to Paris or Amsterdam. It's still in the USA though, so is it local for New Yorkers? Where do you think the equivalent distance from London would take you? To Rome? Or Moscow? Cairo? Further than that! It's 2,201 miles (2,854 driving) from London to Damascus in Syria, but Syria doesn't feel local to me. Yet during the course of a year my husband and I drive enough miles to get to Syria and back four times (including our business miles).

What can I take from this? I definitely do too much driving, even though the distances I travel are short and very local. But the main point is that this is our global economy. The apples in our shops can quite easily have travelled further in their short lifespan than I do in a year. Half way round the world even. I can also appreciate that it is our European neighbours, even though they may speak a different language, who are our closest allies and are best placed to supply us with food in times when oil for transport is expensive or scarce.

Peak short-sightedness

The last post got me reading some of the Department for Transport (DfT) forecasts, which have some amazing predictions in them. It did strike me odd how the DfT can forecast things like future mileage, without any mention or regard to the global decline in oil supplies that we call Peak Oil. Surely that will have some effect? All the graphs and quotes are taken from Road Transport Forecasts 2013 : Results from the Department for Transport's National Transport Model or Road Transport Forecasts 2011: Results from the Department for Transport's National Transport Model, January 2012 Lets start with a good one.......

The black line in this graph shows the actual recorded car miles travelled per person per year, and the red line shows the most likely projection according to DfT. The black line looks very much like the peak of a bell curve to me, but to the DfT this is a minor blip in the continuing growth that they are expecting. Despite an increasing older population who drive less miles and many young people unable to afford to learn to drive or buy a car until they are much older now, the overall trend in their view is for us to be driving more, as soon as the 'temporary' constraints of the recession and high fuel prices pass. Even the light green line, which represents the projection if there is a continued high oil price and continued low growth in GDP, shows a growth in travelling! How do they work this one out given the impact of the last 5 years has shown a continuous decline?

The DfT don't make these projections alone. They rely on projections for the population increasing from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), and projections for the economy growing from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and projections for oil prices from the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Here is their forecast for oil prices....

This is probably my favourite graph of the bunch :-) What does it tell us? That oil prices over the next 15 years are not expected to follow the trend for the last 15 years, but could do anything from increase by 72% or decrease by 27%. It gives the impression that DECC really has no idea what oil prices are going to do.

If we just think logically, what kind of impact would a growing global demand for oil have? It may well push prices up. Instability in oil-producing regions? It is likely to push prices up. Increasing carbon taxes (Ok this is me wishful thinking)? It could push prices up. Increasing extraction costs for oil as we have to dig deeper and go to more remote areas like the Arctic to find oil? They will push prices up. But wait....high oil prices lead to recession and recession in turn reduces the demand for oil, so oil prices could subsequently drop, just like they have in 2008. My prediction is that we will see more high peaks in price followed by troughs, but the overall trend will see prices rising. I suppose the graph is roughly on track in that prices are mainly shown to rise, but it just looks like no graph I have ever seen!

 Car miles per person (with 5 year annualised growth rates)

The blue line in the graph above is showing the average car miles per person since the 1950's, and conveniently points out all the dips where there were recessions. The pink columns show the rate of growth, so in the fifties many people were just getting the oppotunity to own their own car and petrol was becoming available again after the rationing during the war, so there was plenty of growth. The Suez Crisis caused a small dip in growth. The 1970's price spikes had a far bigger impact, but growth recovered in the late eighties. Really since then growth in miles driven per person has been far lower and has decreased from 2005 onwards.

"Historically, static growth or falls in car miles per person correlate with periods of high oil prices or economic contractions. This is specifically seen during fuel rationing of 1957, twice during the 1970s where there were spikes in the oil price and economic recessions, during the recession of the early 1990s and in the year 2000 when fuel prices increased by over 10%. "

Now here comes the lovely green line predicting that economic recovery will lead to continued growth in miles driven. Plus of course new cars are now more efficient, so will cost less to run, meaning we can all afford to drive even further! I really feel that there is a trend here that DfT are missing. People I know are looking to reduce their commute, walk and cycle more, and drive slower to reduce fuel consumption, not just to reduce fuel costs, but also to reduce carbon emissions and the time spent stuck behind a wheel. What about you?

Looking at the car miles per person back to the 1950's makes the graph look even more like a bell-shaped curve. Can anyone else see this or is it just me? Car miles per person in England really seems to have peaked, and only wishful thinking by DfT is trying to slow down it's descent. Of course growth in car miles would be good news for a short-sighted government, who think about increased income from fuel duty, sales of new cars and increased GDP. But can we really ignore or dis-associate it with the longer term issues such as climate change, air pollution and diminishing natural resources.

I am glad peak car miles is here. The more we can reduce our reliance on driving everywhere, the better prepared we will be for rising oil prices and the supply restrictions which are on the horizon.

Permanence and trust

You don't see that many telephone boxes around now, they are becoming extinct since the advent of mobile phones, but I came across this one in a little village called Shirley in Derbyshire. It looks grand!

Can you see how the villagers have put it to good use? It is in the centre of the village, so they have put a noticeboard inside for the village events, and also use it as a 'book swap' store. You can help yourself to the books, as long as you leave the same number of books as you take. This system seems to be working very well, because all the shelves are full and the books look in very good condition, even the childrens books.

The phone box is left open, even though Shirley attracts lots of walkers and tourists. No doubt the villagers benefit from fresh books when the visitors have finished with their holiday reads :)

 

I commented on a blog recently, discussing Peak Oil and financial collapse. Some of the other responses felt that I was being naive, to think that my neighbours would be helpful in an emergency situation, or that I could trust anyone. They clearly have never experienced a place like Shirley, or most of the UK for that matter. I am of the opinion that Trust Breeds Trust. If you show someone trust and respect, then they will act in a trustworthy manner. It is a very simple principle that we all learn about trust from each other. It says a lot that many people in the UK don't think twice about leaving their doors unlocked in the daytime when they are at home.

Well this is beautiful Shirley, a lovely place for a country walk, and the Saracens Head pub, where you can get hot food and drink.

 
I had a conversation with one of the villagers, a complete stranger, whilst waiting for my friend to arrive. He was telling me the history of the village, which had records as far back as 1086, when it was owned by the de Ferrers family. Most of the hundreds of years in between the land was owned by descendants of the same family. The current Earl Ferrers now resides in Norfolk, and most of the land has been sold on.

It is fascinating how slowly things change, and how constant things are. This village has been around for a thousand years or so, with a church, pub and a few farms and houses, that may have been re-built in brick a few hundred years ago, but are essentially the same village. Invasions, wars, plagues and industrialisation have hardly changed it. It is amazing and it makes me wonder how much can really change in something as short as my lifetime?

Whilst walking, my friend Sonia asked, 'Do you really think that Peak Oil is still happening?'. Eight years ago we both firmly believed it was, but business as usual has dragged on so long now, and big stories of how fracking will save us fill the media, so I can understand why many people are questioning.

I have no doubts about Peak Oil happening, but looking at the permanence of Shirley the question on my mind is 'What would peak oil change?' Or even 'What would a financial collapse change?' The land is constant, the fields and woodlands will still stand, along with the stream flowing past the abandoned woodmill. The fields have cattle grazing, just as they would have over the last hundreds of years, and probably will for the next few hundred. We will still need to eat, there will still be farming. Maybe the village will sprout some cheap labourers cottages, the wood mill will be occupied once more and the countryside will have a growing population rather than a declining one, as more people are needed to work on the land.

I don't know how things will pan out, but talk of extinction, an epidemic of violence and people only looking out for themselves, seems completely alien in this land. I am looking at the evidence around me. I am talking to my neighbours, people I meet out walking or in shops, or just random strangers anywhere, and they are polite and helpful. Just try it in your neighbourhood as a bit of a social experiment - ask the time, pretend you are lost, or say you are looking for your cat or have lost you keys. I would love to hear how you get on.

We didn't recognise the route we were taking for our walk, so after asking 2 or 3 walkers, we accosted a gentleman on horseback to ask directions, and he was most helpful. He didn't really know where the footpath we were trying to find was, but he happily told us that the shoot was over for the day, so we were in no danger if we got lost!

Will Peak Oil or financial collapse change people's nature for the worse? Not in a place like Shirley.

Believe that you can do it

My good friend Carol visited me and generously brought with her bountiful vegetables and preserves all produced from her toil and hard work. She has been busy this year researching how much you can produce organically per acre, so everything has been weighed and carefully recorded. Doesn’t it look splendid?

 

Just to give you an idea of scale, here is a sweetheart cabbage from the supermarket on the left and the huge organic sweetheart cabbage from Carol on the right. Enough for four meals worth!

Carol is one of those inspirational people that we all need to meet and hear about, because she is the living evidence that you can do anything if you believe that you can. We first met at the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) whilst studying, and if you ever get the chance to visit CAT then I would thoroughly recommend it. For me it was life changing J Carol was also inspired by one of the course modules on green building materials, particularly building with strawbales. She decided she could do that and she did.

Now Carol’s previous occupation was as an accountant, so it was a bit of a change to jump into building houses. Her family are farmers and clearly have a very positive attitude of just getting on and doing things. Even so it took an incredible amount of time to get planning permission to build a straw bale cottage as a holiday home, on their land. Not content to just wait 2 years for the planners, Carol built the strawbale cabin above. It was built on a mobile home chassis, so was classed as a temporary building. You can see how the build progressed here. Both the cabin and the cottage are available for holidays or quiet retreats, so if you fancy a break in the Yorkshire countryside, only 20 minutes from historic York this is an ecologically friendly place to stay.

 

Carol has trained, advised and inspired countless others to build ecologically and using local materials such as strawbales, in addition to the valuable research she carried out on the thermal performance of strawbale buildings. Her son continues building strawbale homes for people, but Carol has now seen another urgent area where research and action is required. 

 

The UK is a net food importer and is currently unable to grow sufficient food to feed the population. With Peak Oil set to increase the cost of transportation and chemical fertilisers, Carol wanted to investigate how much food we can produce organically, but struggled to find anyone willing to fund this research. Undeterred she has taken it upon herself, setting aside some land and devoting her time and energy to growing a whole range of vegetables.  She has been carefully analysing the results, so her report can contribute to planning for a future with less oil, where more of the food we eat needs to be grown locally and sustainably.

If we continue with business as usual the future looks pretty bleak, so we have nothing to lose from trying something different or new. Next time you have an idea or an opportunity to do something positive, don't listen to the naysayers who tell you that you can't. Think about Carol and remember that you can do anything that you want to do, even build a house or change the future of farming, if you believe that you can J

I've peaked!

This month is my Birthday, and I am officially at my 'Peak' age. Below is the card I received from my mother. Thanks mum!

Funnily enough I felt more disturbed by the colourful message I received from google. I don't recall filling in my date of birth, let alone giving permission for them to use it in their sneaky clever marketing ploys! Are there no privacy laws left?

But really, is down hill that bad? Getting up to this point is such hard work. I mean we have to learn everything from scratch, from tying shoe laces to strange social cues. Then we are climbing a ladder, trying to pass exams, get a career, buy a home, raise a family and juggle all manner of urgent issues to keep life ticking over. Maybe free-wheeling down the otherside is going to be the fun bit!? It may lead to a time when I actually get to sit and enjoy my garden, or read a book, or not have to work for money - now wouldn't that be bliss?

What about Peak Oil? Should we be scared to be at the peak looking down? There are so many different opinions on this, ranging from 'technology will provide a solution' to 'we are facing the extinction of man', that it can be bewildering and scary to contemplate. One thing is certain though, oil is becoming harder and more expensive to extract, and prices are going to continue rising.

Oil prices are linked to recession. Almost all productive activity in our economy is reliant on oil, from ploughing a field, to building a house, to trading round the world. When oil prices increase it has a knock on effect on everything else. If you want to find out more about this rather than take my word for it, try reading 'Oil supply limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis' by Gail Tverberg on her blog Our Finite World.

I think we can expect that oil prices will rise to a new record high, which will cause another recession. Some people feel that we are only months away from this happening. Tom Therramus in his post 'Oil Price Volatility on the Way?' suggests that based on the last 10 years the price spikes have had an average of 33 months between them. It is 30 months since the last price spike, so we don't have long to wait to see if he is right.

Governments and financial institutions have not really recovered from the last major financial disruption, and if anything are even more burdened with debt, which is certainly true of the UK, so it seems very likely that there will be more financial wrecks. Whether there is a full global financial meltdown at that point I don't know, but there is likely to be more countries and banks collapsing. If you have savings then I hope you paid attention to what happened in Cyprus. There is so much to say about financial collapse that I will come back to it in another post.

Demand for oil slows down during a recession, so normally oil prices would drop back again. This is why many predict a rollercoaster of highs and lows for oil prices. But I'm not so sure, because at some point the World will wake up to the fact that oil is getting scarce. In these circumstances I wonder whether most countries would put their own needs first and and hold back on selling any surplus until they can extort the best price.

Ok, it is a pretty bleak predicament.... if you are hooked on oil. The best preparation we can make for ourselves and our communities is to reduce our oil dependence fast. That is not just about driving less, it is about adapting our lifestyles to a new reality. One where we don't depend on plastic wrapped 'stuff' imported from the other side of the World.

There are many people around the world who live without oil and all it's 'luxuries', and the rest of us are going to find out what that is like quite soon. I can see that there could be some benefits to life without oil, for rural communities who know how to feed themselves and can enjoy a simple life. I hope they get a better deal without all the oil-fuelled deforestation, and exploitation for resources and cheap goods. Peak oil writers often depict a future of oil wars, but as you need oil and money to fight the war, and war depletes both even faster, I can see a future where wars will peter out. It is really food and water that is central to our lives, along with shelter, basic healthcare and community.

Just as for me, where the attractive side of the slope has slipped away, and crazy eyebrow hairs and wrinkles are what I can look forward to, the otherside of the Peak Oil slope can look rather ugly on the surface too. It's not all as bad as it seems though, because the last 40 years has been about learning and developing. Beneath the superficial view on the surface, there are hidden depths of knowledge and wisdom. Suddenly reaching the peak may be a bit of a shock and need a period of adjustment, but we can adapt to a reduction in oil consumption.

The population is likely to take a hit, but that's another story too. I may have to face that my half-way point was probably ten years ago, because with severely reduced oil-supported healthcare, life expectancy may drop. Dmitry Orlov talks of a shortened life expectancy caused by the financial crisis and break up of the former Soviet Union in his book 'Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Experience and American Prospects', where diseases spread from the overcrowded prisons and there were middle-aged suicides when people found their lives in ruin. It seems much more likely to me that life expectancy will drop as an impact of the stress of loss of savings, earnings and security, combined with reductions in healthcare and spread of disease, rather than from wars or riots. The BBC ran a news story recently about how birthrate is decreasing in Europe, especially in Southern areas like Spain, because people don't want to have children without financial security.

So here I am trying frantically to unlearn the habits and expectations that have been drilled in to me for the best part of 40 years. I'm training myself to enjoy walking in the countryside rather than getting excited by a cheap flight to Barcelona. I'm learning to grow my own produce for excellent seasonal flavours, rather than buying the flown in exotic foods. I am finding that more choice of clothes only means it takes longer to choose what to wear (Thank you Jo for that insight), and that there is more fun and bargains to be had buying secondhand at the carboot sale, without having exploited factory workers and poisoned cotton farmers on my conscience.

This is downshifting. This is changing down a gear ready for a steep descent. It isn't living in fear, it is being realistic about what the future may hold. This is not hiding away in a bunker, but moving forward with your eyes wide open and your brain engaged. Different people will be coming from a different starting point, but the important thing is to think through the possible scenarios and see how you could be better prepared to face them.